There is a vast literature on the Second Coming, typified bythe works of Hal Lindsey: The Late Great Planet Earth,Countdown to Armageddon, Satan is Alive and Well on PlanetEarth, and The Terminal Generation. There are also manyfictional treatments dealing with either the Antichrist or theSecond Coming. Some are purely secular works like the Omenseries (up to part IV at last count) or Morris West's The Clownsof God. Other works like Carol Balizet's The Seven Last Yearsare written primarily for a religious readership, but strive forplausibility and smooth reading. At the far end of the continuumare works like Salem Kirban's 666 and 1000, perhaps not theworst works of fiction ever written but definitely in seriouscontention. Kirban's literary style in describing the events ofArmageddon reminded me of nothing so much as the monologue asmall child might have while playing with toy soldiers in asandbox. If Earth is about to undergo a vast supernaturalintervention not bound by the conventional laws of nature, thereis obviously nothing science can do to predict it or disprove it,much less do anything about it, and most of the current crop ofapocalyptic literature lies outside the accessible realm ofscience. Nevertheless, some of these works do make scientificclaims. One of the most common, in such works as varied assecular works like We Are The Earthquake Generation, theJehovah's Witnesses' The Truth that Leads to Eternal Life andorthodox fundamentalist works like David Wilkerson's RacingToward Judgement, as well as several of Lindsey's books, is theclaim that earthquakes are occurring now with unprecedentedseverity. Writes Wilkerson: "The 1970's experienced the largestincrease in the number of killer quakes known to history. Infact, the dramatic increase in quakes in 1976 led many scientiststo say we are entering a period of great seismic disturbances."This theme is often echoed by non-scientists who ask after everygreat quake, "Aren't there a lot of earthquakes lately?" Well,actually, there aren't. In recent years the earth has averagedone or two great earthquakes a year (over magnitude 7.75). 1976was a bad year, with four. From 1897 to 1906, the annual numberof great quakes worldwide in each year ran 12, 6, 11, 9, 8, 8, 8,7, and 8. Earthquakes bigger than magnitude 7 average about 10 to15 per year now. Some years during the 1940's registered morethan 40 worldwide. The eruption of Mount Saint Helens has focused the same sortof attention on volcanos. As spectacular as the 1980 eruption ofMount Saint Helens was, it was not a really great eruption. Aneruption as violent as Mount Saint Helens occurs somewhere in theworld every few decades. Mount Saint Helens erupted about onecubic kilometer of ash in 1980, but it also erupted fourcubic kilometers of ash about 1900 B.C. Mount Katmai in Alaskaerupted 12 cubic kilometers in 1912, Krakatoa 18 cubic kilometersin 1883, and the collapse of Mount Mazama to form Crater Lake inOregon about 5000 B.C. was the result of erupting 42 cubickilometers of ash. The historic record eruption is that ofTambora, Indonesia, which erupted 80 cubic kilometers of ash in1815. Prehistoric eruptions have dwarfed even these. An eruptionfrom the Long Valley Caldera east of the Sierra Nevada inCalifornia spread 600 cubic kilometers of ash over parts of tenstates about 700,000 years ago. Earthquakes beneath the calderacaused the U.S. Geological Survey to issue a notice of potentialvolcanic hazard for this area in the summer of 1982. The pattern of responses we see to earthquakes and volcaniceruptions is identical to the common notion that "airplanecrashes always come in threes". Isolated crashes pass more orless unnoticed, except by those directly involved. A cluster ofcrashes in a short time catches our attention and makes us morelikely to notice other accounts of air disasters. The "thirdcrash" in a series may well be a light plane at the local airportbut a crash is a crash. If three crashes don't occur in a fewdays people either lose interest or write the failure off as an"exception". As so often in pseudoscience, evidence that"confirms" the pattern is proof, but evidence that fails toconfirm is not disproof. In truth, the "pattern" exists onlybecause most of us are so oblivious to what is going on in theworld that it takes something dramatic to get our attention. Haveyou ever had the experience of driving down a familiar street andsuddenly asking: "When did they put that building up?" We willsee in Chapter 11 that some UFO sightings are probably offamiliar landmarks like lights on TV or radio towers that hadexisted for years but never really been noticed by the observers.Most of the time, we are apt to pass over accounts in thenewspapers about volcanic eruptions in Peru or earthquakes in theSolomon Islands. After a noteworthy disaster, we become"sensitized" to disasters of that type. So do editors. A storythat might run near the back page if it runs at all underordinary circumstances could become an ideal companion piece fora lead disaster story and make the front page. Incidentally, Immanuel Velikovsky also believed there werelong-term changes in earthquake activity. Unlike modernapocalyptic writers, though, he believed that earthquake activityshould decrease as the earth recovered from its bouts with Marsand Venus. Does evidence that earthquakes and volcanic eruptions arenot increasing in frequency or severity persuade apocalypticwriters that anything is wrong with their theories? No, by anincredible convolution of Scripture and logic, any evidence thatthey're wrong also proves that they're right! This remarkablelogical feat is based on 2 Peter 3:3-4: "Knowing this first, thatthere shall come in the last days scoffers, walking after theirown lusts, and saying 'Where is the promise of his coming? Forsince the fathers fell asleep, all things continue as they weresince the beginning of the creation" (King James Version).Therefore, if earthquakes are becoming more common, that's a signof the last days. If earthquakes are not becoming more common,anyone who points that fact out will be "scoffing" and saying"all things continue as they were", and that, too, is proof ofthe last days| It is hard to picture Peter the simple fisherman lookingwith favor on the use of his words to pull off this sort ofsophistic flim-flam. Instead, the context of Peter's messagemakes it abundantly clear that he was warning his fellowChristians that they would encounter unreasonable opposition andthat they should not become disheartened by it. As used by modernapocalyptic writers, the verse becomes the basis of a riggedargument on the order of "have you stopped cheating on your wife,yet?" or "heads we win, tails you lose". The pathetic thing aboutthe argument is the way some of its users pounce on it as abrilliant, irrefutable argument without ever seeing its intrinsicdishonesty. A humorous image comes to mind. Picture Peter arguingwith a Pharisee, and, after Peter wins the argument, the Phariseesays "I told you, you wouldn't believe me, and since I made acorrect prediction, that proves I must be right!" My guess isthat Peter would reply by tossing the Pharisee overboard. Rigged arguments are common in pseudoscience; they make itappear that the side using them has one the argument regardlessof who has the better evidence. Conspiracy and vested interestcharges are a form of rigged argument, in which the very factthat someone debates a point is used to show the person has avested interest and must therefore be wrong. Rigged arguments are